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Trends Behind and the High Road Ahead

Earl wont carry you on his back, but be ready to grind it out if you want the prize.

Earl won't carry you on his back, but be ready to grind it out if you want the prize.

It’s an interesting season so far in fantasy football. Now that we are six weeks in we can start to glean some trends and embark on new strategies.

The first thing I notice as I sort through the numbers is that this is going to be a very competitive season at every position, and the winner is going to have a well-rounded roster with no proverbial ‘dead spots.’ There is not one player who stands heads and shoulders above the pack in any position this season, and I don’t think it’s going to happen.

Take RB for instance. As expected, Adrian Peterson is the top RB in our league (6 points for TD, 6 points for 100 yards and 2 points for every 25 yards after). And standing tall with Peterson is MJD, who is tied with 62 points. No big shock. But what is a shock is that Thomas Jones is just 6 points behind at 56. And Ronnie Brown is a mere 12 behind at 50.

There is not the separation at RB this season and I don’t think there will be. Frank Gore is leading our league in average points per week at 13 (he’s missed several games due to injury and bye week) and the 49ers schedule is easing up considerably.

It’s even more of a cluster at WR. In our league, 14 points separates the top WR (Randy Moss) with the 12th best WR (DeSean Jackson). Most of the usual suspects are in between, though there are several surprises (the ‘other’ Steve Smith is ranked 4, Miles Austin and his big break-out game is ranked 7, Mario Manningham is ranked 9.) Randy Moss, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne are the safest plays. It’s nice to have one of those. Up and comers that have arrived include Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson and NY’s Steve Smith. I’m not sold yet on Simms-Walker.

So what’s your strategy at WR? If you have one of the studs (Moss, White, Johnson, Fitzgerald, Wayne) then you just need one or two guys in the top 20 and chances are you’ll be set at WR. If you’re stuck with one stud and a bunch of junk, look to trade that one guy in exchange for 2 guys that are almost as good, but don’t have name value yet (think Vincent Jackson, NY Steve Smith, Desean Jackson or Santonio Holmes). Chances are one of those ‘lesser’ guys will be as good or better than the big name player, and certainly the combo will be better.

So who is missing from our list? Well, Carolina’s Steve Smith definitely. Greg Jennings is underachieving, but I wouldn’t give up on him just yet. I can’t say the same for Smith. He is still a big name so you should be able to find one desperate owner to bite. Terrell Owens is in the same boat as Steve Smith, not yet droppable but every week he’s on your roster is a week your team is under-achieving. Someone will take him from you, make the offer!

Note the Giants have two WRs in the top 9. So if Hakeem Nicks is available grab him right now. He is the rookie in NY and could very easily take over for Manningham and just as easily out-produce all WRs in NY. There is some hesitation – if Eli’s foot issues flame up then all those NY WRs will flame out.

QBs show the same theme as RBs and WRs. If you have one of the top 7 you’re doing well. Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethisburger, Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers are all huge, and Jay Cutler is not far behind. There’s not much separation at all among these.

TEs are also a dime a dozen. There is only 6 points separating the top 6, and some of these might even still be available in your league! Heath Miller was just picked up in our league, while Visanthe Shiancoe and Owen Daniels might be available in yours. Too many options at TE this year make it hard to separate at this position.

It’s going to be a very competitive season. Make sure you are stocked throughout your line-up or you may lose out. No single player is going to catapult your team this year. It’s going to be a grind it out from all roster spots kind of year.


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  • Published On Oct. 23, 2009 by bertschbryan
  • Skol Vikings

    Sometimes there is so much to write about it is hard to get started. After the first few minutes of today’s game I thought I would just write “Kick-a** offense….I have been humbled”. But, from there on out this column could have been all over the map. It could have been about AP breaking out against a proud team that I am certain was determined not to give up 100 yards to a single back for the second time in 41, and in 2, games. It could have been about Harvin’s toughness and how tough it will be to win without him – assuming he has to miss some time. But, then again, we came back to win without him today. It could be about Longwell and how important it is to have a great kicker. Isn’t it nice to feel confident every time he lines up for a kick? If not, just ask the Ravens!!!!!

    But, today it really comes down to the fact that the better team won …..AND….the better teams get the breaks they need to win. The Vikings today won about 3.5 quarters of play. And, yet, they were truly lucky to win. But, the best team did win today. We did not win pretty. But we got the win after another great offensive performance and solid, if not spectacular special teams. The defense, well, they did just enough to win. And, without one man that proved today to be the heart of the unit – Antoine Winfield. I watched the game on CBS and somehow their announcers never commented on Antoine Winfield being out. As a fan, I first had questions when Paymah got beat deep at the goal line. I wondered, why is Paymah in there? Later I kept seeing Paymah and realized I had not heard Winfield’s name called even once. We learned today just how important he is to the Vikings.

    Favre the difference maker – how nice is it when the defense jumps offside and Favre finds a way to go deep. Whether it be to Berrian, Rice or anyone else he gets the ball there for a catch, interference or both. Rice more than doubled his career high in yards today and had almost 30 yards a catch. Speaking of Rice – WOW. He looked incredible today. Faster than in the past even if he could not put it in. That late catch, while being pulled and mauled, was incredible.

    On the negative side, we have to work on scoring when we have big plays to get us deep into opposing territory. We have to score touchdowns. We still did pretty well in the red zone but we should have put more home. After AP’s run, after Rice’s catch etc. and so on.

    Back to the positives – specifically the first two drives. The Vikings offense has not looked that good since 2004 if not 1998. We moved the ball at will and made it look easy. What a blast. But, you have to give credit to Baltimore for hanging in there and coming back. I think the Vikes, and even the fans, got a bit complacent. But, give us credit – throughout the game we were the better team and the better team won. Now let’s see how we can do with Harvin, Hutchinson, Loadholt, Peterson and Winfield nicked up. Hopefully taking the safe route with Winfield today, when he wanted to come back in, will pay off with him back against the Steelers. We will certainly need him.

    Until then a familiar mantra – Skol Vikings – with a two game lead in the NFC North!!!!

    SB


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  • Published On Oct. 19, 2009 by bertschbryan
  • Bye Week Blues

    My kicker and TE are on bye, and Ive got no one to drop!

    "My kicker and TE are on bye, and I've got no one to drop!"

    We are in the thick of bye week dilemmas in fantasy football land. Use this to your advantage! For most teams there will be a one or two week pinch when they will need to do some serious juggling to field a full line-up. Last week, I put Donald Driver on waivers so I could field a starting line-up. I didn’t want to do it, but it was the hand I was dealt. Devin Hester was released for the same reason. I wasn’t able to get Driver back (I was outbid, $10-$8) but I did land Hester.

    So how can this help you? Scan rosters and see who might be in a pinch. Then make a 2 for 1 offer for one of their better players. (I like to call this my Package and Upgrade Proposal). That extra player you throw in may help them for their bye (plus it gives you a roster spot for the next hot pick-up!) In any case, owner’s that might not normally sign off on a trade may do so if it helps in their bye week situation.


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  • Published On Oct. 16, 2009 by bertschbryan
  • An Open Letter to Dickey (and all other Sims-Walker Owners)

    Next time you schedule a Play Date on Football Sunday you may want to look at the opportunity cost. Because while you were out frolicking around one of your mans was deactivated.

    Deactivated.

    You started a dead spot on a week that WR pick-ups were GOLD.

    You EARNED your Goose this week.

    Mike Sims-Walker : Sims-Walker violated team itinerary
    10/12/2009 08:14 AM

    THE NEWS
    The Florida Times-Union is reporting that Jaguars’ receiver Mike Sims-Walker was deactivated for Sunday’s game due to a violation of the itinerary during the team’s weekend stay in Seattle. Sims-Walker was one of three Jags to be disciplined in the last two weeks.

    OUR VIEW
    Out walking your dog at 3:00 on Sunday? Then chances are Sims-Walker killed your fantasy team yesterday thanks to whatever he did, but hopefully he gets the message and it doesn’t happen again. And hopefully you think twice before taking out Princess for a piddle before kick-off . Fantasy owners hope that his week off doesn’t slow him down, because he has been outstanding since taking over as a full-time starter.


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  • Published On Oct. 12, 2009 by bertschbryan
  • Purple Pride

    Not much (anything???) bad can be said about the Vikes today. Solid in all facets of the game. While we bent quite a bit on defense we certainly didn’t break. And, while we did get our share of breaks good teams make their breaks. And, we also missed on a big gainer that Harvin had in his hands and dropped and on Henderson’s fumble recovery on which he would have had an apparent TD if he had waited for a blocker and/or made a good move on Boller. But, give Boller credit – that was one of the better QB tackles that you will see in space. Especially against a fast, agile and strong linebacker in Henderson.

    It looks like Chilly was right, or close to it, when he said he had a kick*ss offense. I don’t think it is quite to that level yet but we are getting closer every week. Granted it was the Rams but their defense did not look terrible and they played solid against the Niners last week. Our offensive line play had improved dramatically so far this year which bodes well for the long-term. This should have been expected with two new starters. We are now starting to see open receivers all over the field and they have room to run after the catch. For years we have wanted to look like the Pats, the Colts or the Giants with creative play calling that stretches the “D” and creates openings and mis-matches and we are finally seeing it.

    What I love is that what was supposed to be an “easy” game was an easy game. Over the past 10 years how many times have these types of games come down to the wire and, even when we won, been excruciating to watch? To put this in perspective just see a few games today – Dallas just went up on KC with 2 minutes to play – Pittsburgh only beat Detroit by 8 and Baltimore is losing (at home) to Cinci late in the game. Although, Cinci is much improved this year.

    I still can’t believe what a difference it makes to have Favre, a real QB, leading our team. We all knew we had been hurting at QB since 2004 but I, for one, didn’t truly understand how bad the situation really was. No wonder our offense had been stagnant.

    So, as the StarTribune today reflected back 20 years after the miserably failed Herschel Walker trade I find myself giving Chilly and the Vikings a TON of credit for building one of the best teams in the NFL. We have assembled a team loaded with All-Pros and Pro-Bowl players with many coming via key draft picks, free agent acquisitions and trades. They have made all the right moves: Favre, Harvin, Allen, AP, Hutchinson, Berrian, etc. and so on……

    Comparing our acquisition of Favre – the missing piece – to Herschel is a beautiful thing. Not only did we not have to give up anything but, in the Packers’ effort to keep him from us they screwed themselves as we still got him but did not have to give up any draft picks to get him so we are better positioned to continue to build for the short-and-long-term. Beautiful…. Kudos Mr. Childress!!!!

    SB


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  • Published On Oct. 11, 2009 by bertschbryan