Trends Behind and the High Road Ahead
Earl won't carry you on his back, but be ready to grind it out if you want the prize.
The first thing I notice as I sort through the numbers is that this is going to be a very competitive season at every position, and the winner is going to have a well-rounded roster with no proverbial ‘dead spots.’ There is not one player who stands heads and shoulders above the pack in any position this season, and I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Take RB for instance. As expected, Adrian Peterson is the top RB in our league (6 points for TD, 6 points for 100 yards and 2 points for every 25 yards after). And standing tall with Peterson is MJD, who is tied with 62 points. No big shock. But what is a shock is that Thomas Jones is just 6 points behind at 56. And Ronnie Brown is a mere 12 behind at 50.
There is not the separation at RB this season and I don’t think there will be. Frank Gore is leading our league in average points per week at 13 (he’s missed several games due to injury and bye week) and the 49ers schedule is easing up considerably.
It’s even more of a cluster at WR. In our league, 14 points separates the top WR (Randy Moss) with the 12th best WR (DeSean Jackson). Most of the usual suspects are in between, though there are several surprises (the ‘other’ Steve Smith is ranked 4, Miles Austin and his big break-out game is ranked 7, Mario Manningham is ranked 9.) Randy Moss, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne are the safest plays. It’s nice to have one of those. Up and comers that have arrived include Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson and NY’s Steve Smith. I’m not sold yet on Simms-Walker.
So what’s your strategy at WR? If you have one of the studs (Moss, White, Johnson, Fitzgerald, Wayne) then you just need one or two guys in the top 20 and chances are you’ll be set at WR. If you’re stuck with one stud and a bunch of junk, look to trade that one guy in exchange for 2 guys that are almost as good, but don’t have name value yet (think Vincent Jackson, NY Steve Smith, Desean Jackson or Santonio Holmes). Chances are one of those ‘lesser’ guys will be as good or better than the big name player, and certainly the combo will be better.
So who is missing from our list? Well, Carolina’s Steve Smith definitely. Greg Jennings is underachieving, but I wouldn’t give up on him just yet. I can’t say the same for Smith. He is still a big name so you should be able to find one desperate owner to bite. Terrell Owens is in the same boat as Steve Smith, not yet droppable but every week he’s on your roster is a week your team is under-achieving. Someone will take him from you, make the offer!
Note the Giants have two WRs in the top 9. So if Hakeem Nicks is available grab him right now. He is the rookie in NY and could very easily take over for Manningham and just as easily out-produce all WRs in NY. There is some hesitation – if Eli’s foot issues flame up then all those NY WRs will flame out.
QBs show the same theme as RBs and WRs. If you have one of the top 7 you’re doing well. Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethisburger, Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers are all huge, and Jay Cutler is not far behind. There’s not much separation at all among these.
TEs are also a dime a dozen. There is only 6 points separating the top 6, and some of these might even still be available in your league! Heath Miller was just picked up in our league, while Visanthe Shiancoe and Owen Daniels might be available in yours. Too many options at TE this year make it hard to separate at this position.
It’s going to be a very competitive season. Make sure you are stocked throughout your line-up or you may lose out. No single player is going to catapult your team this year. It’s going to be a grind it out from all roster spots kind of year.
Cheers! Sandra. R.